Turning Launch Data Into a Carry Map

Almost every golfer who has stood in front of a launch monitor walks away with a number for each club, and almost every one of those numbers is optimistic. Not because the machine lies — the machine is generally the most honest thing in the room — but because of how we choose which reading to remember.

Decision One: How Many Shots

Three swings is not a sample. It is an anecdote. With three shots you cannot distinguish a genuinely better configuration from the ordinary variation in your own striking, and you will confidently draw a conclusion anyway.

Ten recorded strikes per club is the working minimum, and we prefer twelve on the driver because driver dispersion is wider. That takes longer and it is less fun than swapping clubs every four shots, which is exactly why so much fitting gets done on samples too small to mean anything.

Decision Two: Which Number to Keep

Given ten carry figures, the temptation is overwhelming to take the best one. That was, after all, the shot that felt right. It is also the shot you will hit roughly once a round, and building a yardage chart around it means you will be short of the green most of the time.

The median — the middle value once the ten are sorted — is more robust than the average because a single shanked or thinned strike does not drag it around. Discard the obvious mishits first, then take the middle of what remains.

Decision Three: Carry, Not Total

Every gapping decision should be made on carry distance. Total distance includes rollout, and rollout on a launch monitor is a model rather than a measurement. It assumes a fairway firmness that may bear no relation to the course you are standing on next Saturday.

Carry is what you control. It is also what determines whether you clear the bunker on the front, which is generally the question you are actually asking.

What a Good Ladder Looks Like

Once you have a median carry per club, write them down in order and look at the steps between them. There is no universal correct gap, but there are useful reference points.

Part of the Bag	Sensible Step	Warning Sign
Driver to longest wood	20–30 yards	Under 12 — one is redundant
Woods and hybrids	15–20 yards	Over 30 — a slot is missing
Long and mid irons	12–15 yards	Under 8 — lofts are too close
Short irons and wedges	10–14 yards	Over 20 — the classic wedge hole

Two rules of thumb are worth holding onto. Gaps should get smaller as clubs get shorter, because precision matters more the closer you are. And a gap you cannot fill with a full swing is worse than a slightly uneven ladder — a twenty-two yard hole at 110 yards will cost you far more than an irregular step between the 5 and 6 iron.

The Part Everybody Skips

Once the ladder exists, cross-check it against reality. Go and play, note the clubs that come up short or fly the green, and compare. Indoor numbers and outdoor numbers diverge for real reasons — wind, temperature, turf, adrenaline — and the map is a starting hypothesis, not a finished document.

What the map does give you is a structure to be wrong against. Without it, every disappointing approach shot is a mystery. With it, you can see that your 8 iron is consistently five yards shorter on the course than in the bay and adjust once, permanently.